In the period to 2010, the market for sisal and henequen is expected to continue to contract, albeit by a relatively slow rate, largely under the influence of competition with synthetic fibres. The market for abaca is expected to remain relatively stable with increases in the trade of manufactures, and especially paper pulp, offsetting the expected decline in trade in fibre. Global consumption of coir is expected to continue growing, albeit at a slower rate than that of the past decade, as demand for coir products in India may decelerate. Market conditions for non-traditional hard fibre products are expected to improve, given the assumption of favourable economic conditions, although their share in total consumption may continue to be relatively small.

These projections for hard fibres have been generated by means of partial equilibrium models estimated by using FAO data and assuming normal weather and economic conditions. The models consist of estimated behavioural equations for production, as well as demand, exports and imports of fibre and manufactured products. The models are dynamic, allowing for adjustments to be gradual, thus taking into consideration biological, behavioural and other factors in the production and consumption of fibre and related products